The consumption response to positive and negative income shocks

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bunn, Philip; Le Roux, Jeanne; Reinold, Kate; Surico, Paolo
• 署名单位: Bank of England; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; London Business School
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.11.007
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 1-15
• 关键词: MPC asymmetry; Household balance sheet; debt; Heterogeneity; transmission mechanism

摘要

A set of newly-added questions in the 2011-2014 Bank of England/NMG Consulting Survey reveals that British households tend to change their consumption by significantly more in reaction to temporary and unanticipated falls in income than to rises of the same size. Household balance sheet characteristics such as high debt-to-income ratios and small liquidity buffers, concerns about credit market access and higher subjective risk of lower future income account for a sizable share of this spending asymmetry. Our findings have important implications for predicting the response of aggregate consumption to expansionary and contractionary macroeconomic policies. (C) 2017 The Bank of England. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.