An evaluation of the Paycheck Protection Program using administrative payroll microdata

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Autor, David; Cho, David; Crane, Leland D.; Goldar, Mita; Lutz, Byron; Montes, Joshua; Peterman, William B.; Ratner, David; Villar, Daniel; Yildirmaz, Ahu
• 署名单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0047-2727
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104664
• 发表日期: 2022
• 关键词: Paycheck Protection Program; Covid-19; fiscal policy

摘要

The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), a principal element of the fiscal stimulus enacted by Congress in response to the COVID-19 economic shock, was intended to assist small businesses to maintain employment and wages during the crisis, as well as cover other expenses. We use high-frequency administrative payroll data from ADP-one of the world's largest payroll processing firms-to estimate the causal effect of the PPP on the evolution of employment at PPP-eligible firms relative to PPP-ineligible firms, where eligibility is determined by industry-specific firm-size cutoffs. Our estimates indicate that the PPP boosted employment at eligible firms by between 2 percent to 5 percent at its peak effect around midMay 2020. The boost to employment waned thereafter and ranged from no effect to a 3 percent boost at the end of 2020. Our estimates imply that employers retained an additional 3.6 million jobs as of mid-May 2020, and 1.4 million jobs at the end of 2020, as a consequence of PPP. The estimated cost per year of employment retained was $169, 000 to $258, 000, equal to 3.4 to 5.2 times median earnings. (c) 2022 Published by Elsevier B.V.