Would households understand average inflation targeting?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hoffmann, Mathias; Moench, Emanuel; Pavlova, Lora; Schultefrankenfeld, Guido
• 署名单位: Deutsche Bundesbank; Frankfurt School Finance & Management; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Helmholtz Association; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.02.006
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: S52-S66
• 关键词: Monetary policy strategy; Household inflation expectations; Randomized control trial; survey data

摘要

Yes, they would. In a randomized control trial, we provide groups of respondents from the Bundesbank Online Panel Households with information about a hypothetical alternative ECB monetary policy regime akin to the Federal Reserve's flexible average inflation targeting (AIT). Inflation expectations significantly increase for the treated individuals. When we provide additional information about near-term inflation, for low levels of trust in the ECB the adjustment of inflation expectations tends to be negative while it is positive for intermediate and higher levels of trust. We assess the economic significance of our findings by comparing two model economies under different monetary policy strategies, calibrated to match the difference in medium-term inflation expectations from our survey results. Under AIT, inflation is substantially less volatile and the frequency of hitting the lower bound on interest rates is considerably reduced. (c) 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.