News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Dietrich, Alexander M.; Kuester, Keith; Mueller, Gernot J.; Schoenle, Raphael
• 署名单位: Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; University of Bonn; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Brandeis University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.02.004
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: S35-S51
• 关键词: Consumer expectations; Survey; Large shock; uncertainty; monetary policy

摘要

A tailor-made survey documents consumers' perceptions of the US economy's response to a large shock: the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey ran at a daily frequency between March 2020 and July 2021. Consumer's perceptions regarding output and inflation react rapidly. Uncertainty is pervasive. A business-cycle model calibrated to the consumers' views provides an interpretation. The rise in household uncertainty accounts for two-thirds of the fall in output. Different perceptions about monetary policy can explain why consumers and professional forecasters agree on the recessionary impact, but have sharply divergent views about inflation. (c) 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.