Private response to exclusionary welfare policy: Evidence from Italian municipalities

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Pulejo, Massimo
• 署名单位: Roma Tre University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0047-2727
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105425
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: Social welfare; immigration; non-profit; populism; local government

摘要

Exclusionary welfare policies are among the flagship proposals in the economic agenda of the far right. Yet, there is little empirical evidence as to whether-after gaining power-such parties do indeed cut welfare provisions for immigrants. Using data on more than 6 million procurement contracts within a close-election Regression Discontinuity Design, I estimate that Italian mayors supported by the far right significantly cut welfare spending for immigrants and refugees. However, using novel data on volunteering associations, I also show that the narrow victory of a far-right coalition is followed by a 9.6 % growth in the per-capita number of local NGOs. The effect is driven by social welfare associations, which provide poverty relief and assistance to vulnerable individuals. Individual-level survey data document how the growth in volunteering is driven by left-leaning citizens with positive attitudes toward immigrants. These findings show how-following political turnovers-the non-profit sector can substitute the state in the provision of public goods that are off the agenda of incumbent policymakers.