When do voters 'rally around the flag'? The salience of political messages

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Arya, Yatish; Bhatiya, Apurav Yash
• 署名单位: Ashoka University; University of Birmingham
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0047-2727
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105356
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: CONFLICT; voting; leaders; media; Issue salience; INDIA

摘要

Does exposure to conflict harm the electoral prospects of the incumbent government or generate a rally around the flag effect? Additionally, what role do politicians and media play in converting conflict exposure into votes? Using exogenous variation in conflict exposure in the home constituencies of deceased soldiers in India and a difference-in-differences regression, we find an increase in incumbent vote share in these constituencies, indicating a significant rally around the flag effect. Only conflicts receiving heightened attention in political speeches and media coverage exhibit this effect. These findings highlight the salience of political messages in shaping voter responses to conflict.