Target-based GDP manipulation: Evidence from China

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gong, Binlei; Shen, Yuhui; Chen, Shuai
• 署名单位: Zhejiang University; Zhejiang University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0047-2727
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105349
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: Target-based GDP manipulation; Bunching Estimation; Ratio form approach; Prefectural-level GDP reporting; Manipulation mitigation

摘要

GDP manipulation is a prevalent form of hidden action, often arising from the principal-agent problem. Utilizing Bunching Estimation within an innovative ratio form approach, this study identifies and quantifies target-based GDP manipulation. Our empirical analysis offers evidence of such manipulation at the prefectural level in China to meet predetermined targets. However, China's target-based GDP manipulation is diminishing over time. Furthermore, the findings suggest that reducing the weight of economic performance in local government assessments and adopting the soft target-setting restrictions have served as effective strategies to significantly mitigate China's GDP manipulation in recent years.