Climate and migration in the United States

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Baylis, Patrick; Bharadwaj, Prashant; Mullins, Jamie T.; Obradovich, Nick
• 署名单位: University of British Columbia; University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of Massachusetts System; University of Massachusetts Amherst; Laureate Institute for Brain Research, Inc.; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0047-2727
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105446
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: climate change; migration; weather

摘要

We study whether households engage in climate-related migration in the United States, a country where most of the population does not regularly experience natural disasters or work in climate-exposed industries. With comprehensive, long-run data from both the Census and tax filings, we document that warm temperatures induce net out-migration, while cooler temperatures do not. By comparing estimates from models using different lengths of temporal variation, we further show that migration is a medium-run response to high temperatures: decadal and longer shifts in weather have larger annualized impacts than year-over-year changes. Finally, comparisons across county types suggest amenity value is an important mechanism behind climate-related migration in the United States.