Declining r* in the US: The role of Social Security

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bonchi, Jacopo; Caracciolo, Giacomo
• 署名单位: University of Bologna; European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0047-2727
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105277
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: Natural interest rate; public pensions; population ageing

摘要

We develop a quantitative life-cycle model to study the impact of Social Security on the US natural interest rate, r * . Past reforms mitigated the r* decline, raising the natural rate by approximately 1 percentage point between 1970 and 2015 through higher replacement rate and retirement age. In the future, increasing the retirement age would counteract the downward pressure on r* due to demographics more than reforms entailing higher contribution or lower replacement rates, with the latter reform delivering the lowest r* value across different future productivity scenarios for the US economy.