ADOPTION CURVES AND SOCIAL INTERACTIONS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Brock, William A.; Durlauf, Steven N.
• 署名单位: University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1542-4766
• DOI: 10.1162/jeea.2010.8.1.232
• 发表日期: 2010
• 页码: 232-251
• 关键词: hybrid corn; technology adoption; models; diffusion; identification; profitability; selection; empirics; returns; GROWTH

摘要

This paper considers the observational implications of social influences on adoption decisions for an environment of perfect foresight adopters. We argue that social influences can produce two observable effects: (1) discontinuities in unconditional adoption curves and (2) pattern reversals in conditional adoption curves, in which earlier adoption is found for one group of actors versus another when fundamentals suggest the reverse ordering should occur; in turn the presence of either of these features can, under weak assumptions, be interpreted as evidence of social influences. As such, these properties are robust implications of social effects. (JEL: C40, D01, O33)