CREATIVE DESTRUCTION AND UNCERTAINTY

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Sedlacek, Petr
• 署名单位: University of Oxford
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1542-4766
• DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvz047
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 1814-1843
• 关键词: technology shocks; indivisible labor; business-cycle; INVESTMENT; GROWTH; volatility; EMPLOYMENT; responses; DYNAMICS; price

摘要

Uncertainty rises in recessions. But does uncertainty cause downturns or vice versa? This paper argues that counter-cyclical uncertainty fluctuations are a by-product of technology growth. In a firm dynamics model with endogenous technology adoption, faster technology growth widens the dispersion of firm-level productivity shocks, a benchmark uncertainty measure. Moreover, faster technology growth spurs a creative destruction process, generates a temporary downturn, and renders uncertainty counter-cyclical. Estimates from structural vector autoregressions (VARs) on U.S. data confirm the model's predictions. On average, 1/4 of the cyclical variation in uncertainty is driven by technology shocks. This fraction rises to 2/3 around the dot-com bubble.