ACCOUNTING FOR THE RISE OF HEALTH SPENDING AND LONGEVITY

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Fonseca, Raquel; Michaud, Pierre-Carl; Galama, Titus; Kapteyn, Arie
• 署名单位: Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; University of Southern California; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Tinbergen Institute
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1542-4766
• DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvaa003
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 536-579
• 关键词: medical-care; life-cycle; insurance; demand; WEALTH; CHOICE

摘要

We estimate a stochastic life-cycle model of endogenous health spending, asset accumulation, and retirement to investigate the causes behind the increase in health spending and longevity in the United States over the period 1965-2005. Accounting for changes over time in taxes, transfers, Social Security, income, health insurance, smoking and obesity, and technological progress, we estimate that technological progress is responsible for half of the increase in life expectancy over the period. Substantial growth in health spending over the period is largely the result of growth in economic resources and the generosity of health insurance, with a modest role for medical technological progress. The growth in spending does not come from changes in a single source, but sources jointly interacted to increase spending: complementarity effects explain up to 26.3% of the increase in health spending. Overall, for those born in 1940, the combined changes in resources and health insurance that occurred over the period are valued at 35.7% of lifetime consumption.