The One-Child Policy and Household Saving

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Choukhmane, Taha; Coeurdacier, Nicolas; Jin, Keyu
• 署名单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1542-4766
• DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvad001
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 987-1032
• 关键词: life-cycle; housing prices; fertility; CHINA; quantity; QUALITY; GROWTH; MODEL; identification; INVESTMENT

摘要

We investigate whether the one-child policy has contributed to the rise in China's household saving rate and human capital in recent decades. In a life-cycle model with intergenerational transfers and human capital accumulation, fertility restrictions lower expected old-age support coming from children-inducing parents to raise saving and education investment in their offspring. Quantitatively, the policy can account for at least 30% of the rise in aggregate saving. Using the birth of twins under the policy as an empirical out-of-sample check to the theory, we find that quantitative estimates on saving and education decisions line up well with micro-data.