Currency crises, capital-account liberalization, and selection bias

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Glick, Reuven; Guo, Xueyan; Hutchison, Michael
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest.88.4.698
• 发表日期: 2006-11
• 页码: 698-714
• 关键词: propensity score; policies

摘要

Are countries with unregulated capital flows more vulnerable to currency crises? Efforts to answer this question properly must control for self-selection bias, because countries with liberalized capital accounts may also have sounder economic policies and institutions that make them less likely to experience crises. We employ a matching and propensity-score methodology to address this issue in a panel analysis of developing countries. Our results suggest that, after controlling for sample selection bias, countries with liberalized capital accounts experience a lower likelihood of currency crises.