The impact of global warming on US agriculture: An econometric analysis of optimal growing conditions

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Schlenker, W; Hanemann, WM; Fisher, AC
• 署名单位: Columbia University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest.2006.88.1.113
• 发表日期: 2006-02
• 页码: 113-125
• 关键词: climate-change

摘要

We link farmland values to climatic, soil, and socioeconomic variables for U. S. counties east of the 100th meridian, the historical boundary of agriculture not primarily dependent on irrigation. Degree days, a nonlinear transformation of the climatic variables suggested by agronomic experiments as more relevant to crop yield, gives an improved fit and increased robustness. Estimated coefficients are consistent with the experimental results. The model is employed to estimate the potential impacts on farmland values for a range of recent warming scenarios. The predictions are very robust, and more than 75% of the counties in our sample show a statistically significant effect, ranging from moderate gains to large losses, with losses in the aggregate that can become quite large under scenarios involving sustained heavy use of fossil fuels.