Do high birth rates hamper economic growth?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Li, Hongbin; Zhang, Junsen
• 署名单位: Chinese University of Hong Kong; Chinese University of Hong Kong
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest.89.1.110
• 发表日期: 2007-02
• 页码: 110-117
• 关键词: panel-data; population-growth; fertility; CHINA; components; POLICY

摘要

This paper examines the impact of the birth rate on economic growth by using a panel data set of 28 provinces in China over twenty years. Because China's one-child policy applied only to the Han Chinese but not to minorities, this unique affirmative policy allows us to use the proportion of minorities in a province as an instrumental variable to identify the causal effect of the birth rate on economic growth. We find that the birth rate has a negative impact on economic growth. The finding not only supports the view of Malthus, but also suggests that China's birth control policy is indeed growth enhancing.