THE PREBISCH-SINGER HYPOTHESIS: FOUR CENTURIES OF EVIDENCE

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Harvey, David I.; Kellard, Neil M.; Madsen, Jakob B.; Wohar, Mark E.
• 署名单位: University of Nottingham; University of Essex; Monash University; University of Nebraska System
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest.2010.12184
• 发表日期: 2010-05
• 页码: 367-377
• 关键词: net barter terms; primary commodities; unit-root; statistical debate; relative price; trend breaks; TRADE; tests; cycles; PRODUCTIVITY

摘要

We employ a unique data set and new time-series techniques to reexamine the existence of trends in relative primary commodity prices. The data set comprises 25 commodities and provides a new historical perspective, spanning the seventeenth to the twenty-first centuries. New tests for the trend function, robust to the order of integration of the series, are applied to the data. Results show that eleven price series present a significant and downward trend over all or some fraction of the sample period. In the very long run, a secular, deteriorating trend is a relevant phenomenon for a significant proportion of primary commodities.