CATASTROPHIC NATURAL DISASTERS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cavallo, Eduardo; Galiani, Sebastian; Noy, Ilan; Pantano, Juan
• 署名单位: Inter-American Development Bank; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; University of Hawaii System; Victoria University Wellington; Washington University (WUSTL)
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/REST_a_00413
• 发表日期: 2013-12
• 页码: 1549-1561
• 关键词: rare disasters; IMPACT

摘要

We examine the average causal impact of catastrophic natural disasters on economic growth by combining information from comparative case studies. For each country affected by a large disaster, we compute the counterfactual by constructing synthetic controls. We find that only extremely large disasters have a negative effect on output in both the short and the long runs. However, we also show that this results from two events where radical political revolutions followed the disasters. Once we control for these political changes, even extremely large disasters do not display any significant effect on economic growth.