UNEMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS IN THE OECD

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Elsby, Michael W. L.; Hobijn, Bart; Sahin, Ayseguel
• 署名单位: University of Edinburgh; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/REST_a_00277
• 发表日期: 2013-05
• 页码: 530-548
• 关键词: cyclical behavior; LABOR; SEPARATION; duration; FLOWS; outs; ins

摘要

We provide a set of comparable estimates for the rates of inflow to and outflow from unemployment using publicly available data for fourteen OECD economies. Using a novel decomposition that allows for deviations of unemployment from its flow steady state, we find that fluctuations in both inflow and outflow rates contribute substantially to unemployment variation within countries. Anglo-Saxon economies exhibit approximately a 15:85 inflow-outflow split to unemployment variation, while continental European and Nordic countries display closer to a 45:55 split. In all economies, increases in inflows lead increases in unemployment, whereas outflows lag a ramp-up in unemployment.