Estimating dynamic R&D choice: an analysis of costs and long-run benefits

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Peters, Bettina; Roberts, Mark J.; Van Anh Vuong; Fryges, Helmut
• 署名单位: Leibniz Association; Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW); Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Cologne; University of Tasmania
• 刊物名称: RAND JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0741-6261
• DOI: 10.1111/1756-2171.12181
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 409-437
• 关键词: productivity; INNOVATION

摘要

This article estimates a dynamic structural model of discrete Research and Development (R&D) investment and quantifies its cost and long-run benefit for German manufacturing firms. The model incorporates linkages between R&D choice, product and process innovations, and future productivity and profits. The long-run payoff to R&D is the proportional difference in expected firm value generated by the investment. It increases firm value by 6.7% for the median firm in high-tech industries but only 2.8% in low-tech industries. Simulations show that reductions in maintenance costs of innovation significantly raise investment rates and productivity, whereas reductions in startup costs have little effect.