OPIUM FOR THE MASSES? CONFLICT-INDUCED NARCOTICS PRODUCTION IN AFGHANISTAN

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Lind, Jo Thori; Moene, Karl Ove; Willumsen, Fredrik
• 署名单位: University of Oslo
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/REST_a_00418
• 发表日期: 2014-12
• 页码: 949-966
• 关键词: civil conflict; natural-resources; wars; curse; determinants; insurgency; grievance; models; shocks; income

摘要

To explain the rise in Afghan opium production, we explore how rising conflicts change the incentives of farmers. Conflicts make illegal opportunities more profitable as they increase the perceived lawlessness and destroy infrastructure crucial to alternative crops. Exploiting a unique data set, we show that Western hostile casualties, our proxy for conflict, have a strong impact on subsequent local opium production. Using the period after the planting season as a placebo test, we show that conflict has a strong effect before but no effect after planting, indicating causality.