EXTERNAL SHOCKS, INTERNAL SHOTS: THE GEOGRAPHY OF CIVIL CONFLICTS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Berman, Nicolas; Couttenier, Mathieu
• 署名单位: University of Lausanne
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/REST_a_00521
• 发表日期: 2015-10
• 页码: 758-776
• 关键词: growth; determinants; DYNAMICS; OUTBREAK; ECONOMY; OIL

摘要

We use georeferenced information on the location of violent events in sub-Saharan African countries and provide evidence that external income shocks are important determinants of the intensity and geography of civil conflicts. More precisely, we find that (a) the incidence, intensity, and onset of conflicts are generally negatively and significantly correlated with income variations at the local level; (b) this relationship is significantly weaker for the most remote locations; and (c) at the country level, these shocks have an insignificant impact on the overall probability of conflict outbreak but do affect the probability that conflicts start in the most opened regions.