Does consumer demand pull scientifically novel drug innovation?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Dranove, David; Garthwaite, Craig; Hermosilla, Manuel
• 署名单位: Northwestern University; Johns Hopkins University
• 刊物名称: RAND JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0741-6261
• DOI: 10.1111/1756-2171.12422
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 590-638
• 关键词: medicare-part-d; research-and-development; development success rates; market-size; technological novelty; DISCOVERY; returns; pharmaceuticals; risks

摘要

Prior literature shows that stronger consumer demand leads to increased pharmaceutical R&D. However, how strong these demand-pull effects are for more scientifically novel drug innovation remains unknown. We address this question using comprehensive clinical trial data that include precise characterizations of the scientific approaches used in tested molecules. We characterize scientific novelty as the number of times each approach has been used in the past. Exploiting exogenous demand variation introduced by the introduction of Medicare Part D, we find strong evidence that demand-pull effects are markedly skewed in favor of non-novel or follow-on drug R&D.