The Evolution of Rotation Group Bias: Will the Real Unemployment Rate Please Stand Up?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Krueger, Alan B.; Mas, Alexandre; Niu, Xiaotong
• 署名单位: Princeton University; Congressional Budget Office
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/REST_a_00630
• 发表日期: 2017-05
• 页码: 258-264
• 关键词: inference

摘要

We document that rotation group biasthe tendency for the unemployment rate to vary systematically by month in samplein the Current Population Survey (CPS) has worsened over time. Estimated unemployment rates for earlier rotation groups have grown sharply relative to later rotation groups; both should be nationally representative samples. This bias increased discretely after the 1994 CPS redesign, and rising nonresponse rates are likely a significant contributor. Survey nonresponse increased after the redesign, mirroring the evolution of rotation group bias. Consistent with this explanation, rotation group bias for households that responded in all eight interviews remained stable over time.