Patent-Based News Shocks

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo; Vukotic, Marija
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University of Warwick
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00943
• 发表日期: 2022-01
• 页码: 51-66
• 关键词: credit spreads; stock-prices; BUSINESS; INNOVATION

摘要

What do patents tell us about the economic effects of future technological improvements? We identify aggregate and industry-level patent-based news shocks by exploiting changes in stock market valuations of firms that obtain patent grants. Our shocks resemble diffusion news: they do not affect total factor productivity in the short run but induce a strong permanent effect after five years. We find that patent-based news shocks produce positive co-movement between consumption, output, investment, and hours. They also generate positive responses in inflation and in the federal funds rate, consistent with standard New Keynesian models.