A Natural Experiment on Job Insecurity and Fertility in France

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Clark, Andrew E.; Lepinteur, Anthony
• 署名单位: Paris School of Economics; University of Luxembourg
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00964
• 发表日期: 2022-03
• 页码: 386-398
• 关键词: economic uncertainty; EMPLOYMENT; selection; CHOICE; IMPACT; birth; WAR

摘要

Job insecurity can have wide-ranging consequences outside of the labor market. A 1999 rise in the French layoff tax paid by large private firms when they laid off older workers made younger workers less secure; this insecurity reduced their fertility by 3.7 percentage points (with a 95% confidence interval between 0.7 and 6.6 percentage points). Reduced fertility is found only at the intensive margin: job insecurity reduces family size but not the probability of parenthood itself. Our results also suggest negative selection into parenthood, as this fertility effect does not appear for low-income and less-educated workers.