International Food Commodity Prices and Missing (Dis)Inflation in the Euro Area

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Peersman, Gert
• 署名单位: Ghent University
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00939
• 发表日期: 2022-01
• 页码: 85-100
• 关键词: income tax changes; inflation dynamics; inference; dimension; frictions

摘要

Exogenous shifts in international food commodity prices, which are identified using an SVAR model with global harvest shocks as an external instrument, explain almost 30% of euro-area inflation volatility over the medium term and contributed significantly to the twin puzzle of missing (dis)inflation in the era after the Great Recession. International food price shocks have an impact on food retail prices through the food production chain, but also trigger indirect inflationary effects via a depreciation of the euro and, most important, rising wages. Finally, due to asymmetric wage responses, the inflationary effects are very different across member states.