Fiscal Multipliers and Financial Crises

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Faria-e-Castro, Miguel
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01163
• 发表日期: 2024-05
• 页码: 728-747
• 关键词: economic stimulus payments; time-series; POLICY; consumption; models

摘要

I study the effects of the U.S. fiscal policy response to the Great Recession, accounting for both standard tools and financial sector interventions. A nonlinear model calibrated to the United States allows me to study the state-dependent effects of different fiscal policies. I combine the model with data on the fiscal policy response to find that the fall in consumption would have been one-third larger in the absence of that response, for a cumulative loss of 7.18%. Transfers and bank recapitalizations yielded the largest fiscal multipliers through new transmission channels that arise from linkages between household and bank balance sheets.