Age- dependent extinction and the neutral theory of biodiversity

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Saulsbury, James G.; Parins-Fukuchi, C. Tomomi; Wilson, Connor J.; Reitan, Trond; Liow, Lee Hsiang
• 署名单位: University of Oslo; University of Kansas; University of Toronto; University of Oxford; University of Arizona; University of Oslo
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-15445
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2307629121
• 发表日期: 2024-01-02
• 关键词: red-queen; late ordovician; geographic range; diversity; ecology; RISK; time; selectivity; RESOLUTION; DYNAMICS

摘要

Red Queen (RQ) theory states that adaptation does not protect species from extinction because their competitors are continually adapting alongside them. RQ was founded on the apparent independence of extinction risk and fossil taxon age, but analytical developments have since demonstrated that age- dependent extinction is widespread, usually most intense among young species. Here, we develop ecological neutral theory as a general framework for modeling fossil species survivorship under incomplete sam-pling. We show that it provides an excellent fit to a high- resolution dataset of species durations for Paleozoic zooplankton and more broadly can account for age- dependent extinction seen throughout the fossil record. Unlike widely used alternative models, the neutral model has parameters with biological meaning, thereby generating testable hypotheses on changes in ancient ecosystems. The success of this approach suggests reinterpretations of mass extinctions and of scaling in eco- evolutionary systems. Intense extinction among young species does not necessarily refute RQ or require a special explanation but can instead be parsimoniously explained by neutral dynamics operating across species regardless of age.SignificanceRed Queen (RQ) theory predicts that competition among species should cause extinction risk to be independent of species age, but recent analyses have refuted this central prediction. To fill the resulting theoretical vacuum, we used ecological neutral theory to build a model of the lifespans of incompletely sampled species evolving under zero-sum competition. This model predicts survivorship among fossil zooplankton with surprising accuracy and accounts for empirical deviations from the predictions of RQ more generally. A neutral model of background extinction allows for interpreting survivorship curves in terms of biological process, suggests a novel understanding of mass extinctions, and supports a role for competition in extinction.