Estimating future climate change impacts on human mortality and crop yields via air pollution

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Murray, Lee T.; Leibensperger, Eric M.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Tai, Amos P. K.
• 署名单位: University of Rochester; University of Rochester; Ithaca College; Harvard University; Chinese University of Hong Kong; Chinese University of Hong Kong; Chinese University of Hong Kong
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-14392
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2400117121
• 发表日期: 2024-09-24
• 关键词: UNITED-STATES; surface ozone; QUALITY; MODEL; emissions; projections; preindustrial; distributions; chemistry; FRAMEWORK

摘要

Future climate change may bring local benefits or penalties to surface air pollution, resulting from changing temperature, precipitation, and transport patterns, as well as changes in climate-sensitive natural precursor emissions. Here, we estimate the climate penalties and benefits at the end of this century with regard to surface ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5; excluding dust and smoke) using a one-way offline coupling between a general circulation model and a global 3-D chemical-transport model. We archive meteorology for the present day (2005 to 2014) and end of this century (2090 to 2099) for seven future scenarios developed for Phase 6 of the Coupled Model precursor emission changes versus that of climate-only driven changes on surface ozone and PM2.5 for scenarios ranging from extreme mitigation to extreme warming. We then relate these changes to impacts on human mortality and crop production. We find ozone penalties over nearly all land areas with increasing warming. We find net