Spectrally refined unbiased Monte Carlo estimate of the Earth's global radiative cooling

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Nyffenegger-Pere, Yaniss; Armante, Raymond; Bati, Megane; Blanco, Stephane; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; El Hafi, Mouna; Eymet, Vincent; Forest, Vincent; Fournier, Richard; Gautrais, Jacques; Lebrun, Raphael; Mellado, Nicolas; Mourtaday, Nada; Paulin, Mathias
• 署名单位: Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia (IAA); Universite PSL; Ecole Normale Superieure (ENS); Ecole Normale Superieure de Lyon (ENS de LYON); Sorbonne Universite; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Federale Toulouse Midi-Pyrenees (ComUE); Universite Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier; Institut National Polytechnique de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Universite de Toulouse - Jean Jaures; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); IMT - Institut Mines-Telecom; Universite Federale Toulouse Midi-Pyrenees (ComUE); Universite de Toulouse; IMT Mines Albi; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-14232
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2315492121
• 发表日期: 2024-01-30

摘要

The Earth's radiative cooling is a key driver of climate. Determining how it is affected by greenhouse gas concentration is a core question in climate -change sciences. Due to the complexity of radiative transfer processes, current practices to estimate this cooling require the development and use of a suite of radiative transfer models whose accuracy diminishes as we move from local, instantaneous estimates to global estimates over the whole globe and over long periods of time (decades). Here, we show that recent advances in nonlinear Monte Carlo methods allow a paradigm shift: a completely unbiased estimate of the Earth's infrared cooling to space can be produced using single model, integrating the most refined spectroscopic models of molecular gas energy transitions over a global scale and over years, all at a very low computational cost (a few seconds).