Effects of climate, land use, and human population change on human-elephant conflict risk in Africa and Asia

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Guarnieri, Mia; Kumaishi, Grace; Brock, Cameryn; Chatterjee, Mayukh; Fabiano, Ezequiel; Adefowora, Roshni Katrak-; Larsen, Ashley; Lockmann, Taylor M.; Roehrdanz, Patrick R.
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; Conservation International; University of Namibia
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-13743
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2312569121
• 发表日期: 2024-02-06
• 关键词: human-wildlife conflict; loxodonta-africana; protected areas; patterns

摘要

Human-wildlife conflict is an important factor in the modern biodiversity crisis and has negative effects on both humans and wildlife (such as property destruction, injury, or death) that can impede conservation efforts for threatened species. Effectively addressing conflict requires an understanding of where it is likely to occur, particularly as climate change shifts wildlife ranges and human activities globally. Here, we examine how projected shifts in cropland density, human population density, and climatic suitability-three key drivers of human-elephant conflict-will shift conflict pressures for endangered Asian and African elephants to inform conflict management in a changing climate. We find that conflict risk (cropland density and/or human population density moving into the 90th percentile based on current - day values) increases in 2050, with a larger increase under the high- emissions regional rivalry SSP3 - RCP 7.0 scenario than the low- emissions sustainability SSP1 - RCP 2.6 scenario. We also find a net decrease in climatic suitability for both species along their extended range boundaries, with decreasing suitability most often overlapping increasing conflict risk when both suitability and conflict risk are changing. Our findings suggest that as climate changes, the risk of conflict with Asian and African elephants may shift and increase and managers should proactively mitigate that conflict to preserve these charismatic animals.