Policies, projections, and the social cost of carbon: Results from the DICE-2023 model

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Barrage, Lint; Nordhaus, William
• 署名单位: Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-12384
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2312030121
• 发表日期: 2024-03-19
• 关键词: climate-change; dioxide; damage

摘要

The present study examines the assumptions, modeling structure, and results of DICE - 2023, the revised Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy (DICE), updated to 2023. The revision contains major changes in the treatment of risk, the carbon and climate modules, the treatment of nonindustrial greenhouse gases, discount rates, as well as updates on all the major components. Noteworthy changes are a significant reduction in the target for the optimal (cost- beneficial) temperature path, a lower cost of reaching the 2 degrees C target, an analysis of the impact of the Paris Accord, and a major increase in the estimated social cost of carbon. Significance The DICE model is the most widely used climate- change integrated assessment model, employed in calculating the social cost of carbon by the US and other governments as well as for creating consistent scenarios and evaluating policies and uncertainties. The present study updates the 2016 DICE version and introduces approaches for including nondiversifiable risk, includes a revised carbon cycle, updates the damage estimates, and includes results on the Paris Accord and temperature- limited scenarios.