Evolving Arctic maritime hazards: Declining sea ice and rising waves in the Northwest Passage

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Henke, Martin T.; Miesse, Tyler; de Lima, Andre de Souza; Ferreira, Celso; Ravens, Thomas; Pundt, Ralph
• 署名单位: George Mason University; University of Alaska System; University of Alaska Anchorage
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-11851
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2400355121
• 发表日期: 2024-07-16
• 关键词: climate projections; ocean; TRENDS; wind; beaufort

摘要

The ongoing and projected retreat of Arctic sea ice has garnered international interest toward the utilization of Arctic maritime corridors for shipping, tourism, and development. Yet, with potential for increasing traffic in Arctic regions, it's important to consider additional environmental variables affected by climate change which may threaten wave simulations and investigate the future magnitude and seasonality of sea ice risk coupled with wave hazards. Analyzing the potential 5 mo shipping season spanning July to November along the Northwest Passage maritime route between 2020 and 2070, our results show a substantial decline in sea ice risk over the analysis time period, resulting in near open- water conditions along the route for a 5 mo period by 2070. However, as seasonal ice coverage retreats, there is a significant upward trend in wave heights along the route during July and November, with the timing of the greatest wave height shifting away from September toward later in the season. This result is pertinent as the possibility of seasonally unprecedented extreme waves coupled with subfreezing late fall temperatures makes for an especially hazardous environment, thus emphasizing the importance of considering the interaction between evolving sea ice and interdependent hazards when predicting the risks and challenges faced by Arctic maritime operations.