Are self-reported fertility preferences biased? Evidence from indirect elicitation methods

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Valente, Christine; Toh, Wen Qiang; Jalingo, Inuwa; Lepine, Aurelia; de Paula, Aureo; Miller, Grant
• 署名单位: University of Bristol; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam; University of London; University College London; University of London; University College London; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-11842
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2407629121
• 发表日期: 2024-08-20
• 关键词: desired fertility

摘要

Desired fertility measures are routinely collected and used by researchers and policy makers, but their self-reported nature raises the possibility of reporting bias. In this paper, we test for the presence of such bias by comparing responses to direct survey questions with indirect questions offering a varying, randomized, degree of confidentiality to respondents in a socioeconomically diverse sample of Nigerian women (N = 6,256). We find that women report higher fertility preferences when asked indirectly, but only when their responses afford them complete confidentiality, not when their responses are simply blind to the enumerator. Our results suggest that there may be fewer unintended pregnancies than currently thought and that the effectiveness of family planning policy targeting may be weakened by the bias we uncover. We conclude with suggestions for future work on how to mitigate reporting bias.