Climate, demography, immunology, and virology combine to drive two decades of dengue virus dynamics in Cambodia

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Brook, Cara E.; Rozins, Carly; Bohl, Jennifer A.; Ahyong, Vida; Chea, Sophana; Fahsbender, Liz; Huy, Rekol; Lay, Sreyngim; Leang, Rithea; Li, Yimei; Lon, Chanthap; Man, Somnang; Oum, Mengheng; Northrup, Graham R.; Oliveira, Fabiano; Pacheco, Andrea R.; Parker, Daniel M.; Young, Katherine; Boots, Michael; Tato, Cristina M.; Derisi, Joseph L.; Yek, Christina; Manning, Jessica E.
• 署名单位: University of Chicago; York University - Canada; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH National Institute of Allergy & Infectious Diseases (NIAID); Chan Zuckerberg Initiative (CZI); Chan Zuckerberg Initiative (CZI); National Center Parasitology, Entomology & Malaria Control; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of California System; University of California Irvine; University of California System; University of California Irvine; University of Texas System; University of Texas El Paso; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-11343
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2318704121
• 发表日期: 2024-09-03
• 关键词: antibody-dependent enhancement; transmission dynamics; measles epidemics; SURVEILLANCE; type-2; reemergence; alignment; disease; IMPACT; series

摘要

The incidence of dengue virus disease has increased globally across the past half- century, with highest number of cases ever reported in 2019 and again in 2023. We analyzed climatological, epidemiological, and phylogenomic data to investigate drivers of two decades of dengue in Cambodia, an understudied endemic setting. Using epidemiological models fit to a 19- y dataset, we first demonstrate that climate- driven transmission alone is insufficient to explain three epidemics across the time series. We then use wavelet decomposition to highlight enhanced annual and multiannual synchronicity in dengue cycles between provinces in epidemic years, suggesting a role for climate in homogenizing dynamics across space and time. Assuming reported cases correspond to symptomatic secondary infections, we next use an age- structured catalytic model to estimate a declining force of infection for dengue through time, which elevates the mean age of reported cases in Cambodia. Reported cases in >70- y- old individuals in the 2019 epidemic are best explained when also allowing for waning multitypic immunity and repeat symptomatic infections in older patients. We support this work with phylogenetic analysis of 192 dengue virus (DENV) genomes that we sequenced between 2019 and 2022, which document emergence of DENV- 2 Cosmopolitan Genotype- II into Cambodia. This lineage demonstrates phylogenetic homogeneity across wide geographic areas, consistent with invasion behavior and in contrast to high phylogenetic diversity model of dengue dynamics to demonstrate how expansion of an antigenically distinct lineage that evades preexisting multitypic immunity effectively reproduces the older- age infections witnessed in our data.