Evidence for a survival-driven traveling wave in a keystone boreal predator population

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Arnold, Derek A.; Breed, Greg A.; Laufenberg, Jared S.; Berg, Nathan D.; Bertram, Mark R.; Scotton, Bradley D.; Kielland, Knut
• 署名单位: University of Alaska System; University of Alaska Fairbanks; University of Alaska System; University of Alaska Fairbanks; United States Department of the Interior; US Fish & Wildlife Service; United States Department of the Interior; US Fish & Wildlife Service; United States Department of the Interior; US Fish & Wildlife Service; United States Department of the Interior; US Fish & Wildlife Service
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-11117
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2414052121
• 发表日期: 2024-10-08
• 关键词: snowshoe hare; cyclic populations; spatial synchrony; lepus-americanus; lynx; DYNAMICS; dispersal; patterns; decline; models

摘要

Cyclical population dynamics are a common phenomenon in populations worldwide, yet the spatial organization of these cycles remains poorly understood. In this study, we investigated the spatial form and timing of a population collapse from 2018 to 2022 in Canada lynx ( Lynx canadensis) across the northwest boreal forest. We analyzed survival, reproduction, and dispersal data from 143 individual global positioning system (GPS) collared lynx from populations across five study sites spanning interior Alaska to determine whether lynx displayed characteristics of a population wave following a concurrent wave in snowshoe hare ( Lepus americanus) abundance. Reproductive rates declined across the study sites; however, site-level reproduction declined first in our easternmost study sites, supporting the idea of a population wave. Despite a clear increase in percent of dispersing lynx, there was no evidence of directional bias in dispersal following a hare population wave. Analysis did show increasingly poor survival for lynx dispersing to the east compared to combined resident and westward dispersal. This pattern is consistent with a survival-mediated population wave in lynx as the driver of the theorized population wave. The combination of these factors supports the idea of a hierarchical response to snowshoe hare population declines with a drop in lynx reproduction followed by increased dispersal, and finally reduced survival. All of this evidence is consistent with the expected characteristics of a population undergoing a traveling wave and supports the hypothesis that lynx presence may facilitate and mirror the underlying wave patterns in snowshoe hare.