Transient social-ecological dynamics reveal signals of decoupling in a highly disturbed Anthropocene landscape

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Lin, Qi; Zhang, Ke; Giguet- Covex, Charline; Arnaud, Fabien; McGowan, Suzanne; Gielly, Ludovic; Capo, Eric; Huang, Shixin; Ficetola, Gentile Francesco; Shen, Ji; Dearing, John A.; Meadows, Michael E.
• 署名单位: Chinese Academy of Sciences; Nanjing Institute of Geography & Limnology, CAS; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universite Savoie Mont Blanc; Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts & Sciences; Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW); Communaute Universite Grenoble Alpes; Universite Grenoble Alpes (UGA); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universite Savoie Mont Blanc; Umea University; University of Milan; Nanjing University; University of Southampton; University of Cape Town
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-10932
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2321303121
• 发表日期: 2024-04-23
• 关键词: operating space; regime shifts; lake; indicators; resilience; safe

摘要

Understanding the transient dynamics of interlinked social-ecological systems (SES) is imperative for assessing sustainability in the Anthropocene. However, how to identify critical transitions in real - world SES remains a formidable challenge. In this study, we present an evolutionary framework to characterize these dynamics over an extended historical timeline. Our approach leverages multidecadal rates of change in socioeconomic data, paleoenvironmental, and cutting - edge sedimentary ancient DNA records from China's Yangtze River Delta, one of the most densely populated and intensively modified landscapes on Earth. Our analysis reveals two significant social-ecological transitions characterized by contrasting interactions and feedback spanning several centuries. Initially, the regional SES exhibited a loosely connected and ecologically sustainable regime. Nevertheless, starting in the 1950s, an increasingly interconnected regime emerged, ultimately resulting in the crossing of tipping points and an unprecedented acceleration in soil erosion, water eutrophication, and ecosystem degradation. Remarkably, the second transition occurring around the 2000s, featured a notable decoupling of socioeconomic development from ecoenvironmental degradation. This decoupling phenomenon signifies a more desirable reconfiguration of the regional SES, furnishing essential insights not only for the Yangtze River Basin but also for regions worldwide grappling with similar sustainability challenges. Our extensive multidecadal empirical investigation underscores the value of coevolutionary approaches in understanding and addressing social-ecological system dynamics.