Experimental coral reef communities transform yet persist under mitigated future ocean warming and acidification

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Jury, Christopher P.; Bahr, Keisha D.; Cros, Annick; Dobson, Kerri L.; Freel, Evan B.; Graham, Andrew T.; McLachlan, Rowan H.; Nelson, Craig E.; Price, James T.; de Souza, Mariana Rocha; Shizuru, Leah; Smith, Celia M.; Sparagon, Wesley J.; Squair, Cheryl A.; Timmers, Molly A.; Vicente, Jan; Webb, Maryann K.; Yamase, Nicole H.; Grottoli, Andrea G.; Toonen, Robert J.
• 署名单位: University of Hawaii System; University of Hawaii Manoa; Texas A&M University System; Nature Conservancy; University of Southampton; NERC National Oceanography Centre; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; Oregon State University; University of Hawaii System; University of Hawaii Manoa; University of Hawaii System; University of Hawaii Manoa; University of Hawaii System; University of Hawaii Manoa; University of Hawaii System; University of Hawaii Manoa; University of Hawaii System; University of Hawaii Manoa; National Geographic Society
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-10638
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2407112121
• 发表日期: 2024-11-05
• 关键词: climate-change; calcification; organisms; winners

摘要

Coral reefs are among the most sensitive ecosystems affected by ocean warming and acidification, and are predicted to collapse over the next few decades. Reefs are predicted to shift from net accreting calcifier- dominated systems with exceptionally high biodiversity to net eroding algal- dominated systems with dramatically reduced biodiversity. Here, we present a two- year experimental study examining the responses of entire mesocosm coral reef communities to warming (+2 degrees C), acidification (-0.2 pH units), and combined future ocean (+2 degrees C, -0.2 pH) treatments. Contrary to modeled projections, we show that under future ocean conditions, these communities shift structure and composition yet persist as novel calcifying ecosystems with high biodiversity. Our results suggest that if climate change is limited to Paris Climate Agreement targets, coral reefs could persist in an altered state rather than collapse.