The dawn of the tropical Atlantic invasion into the Mediterranean Sea

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Albano, Paolo G.; Schultz, Lotta; Wessely, Johannes; Taviani, Marco; Dullinger, Stefan; Danise, Silvia
• 署名单位: Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn; University of Bergen; University of Vienna; Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR); Istituto di Scienze Marine (ISMAR-CNR); Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn; University of Florence
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-10485
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2320687121
• 发表日期: 2024-04-09
• 关键词: climate-change; FUTURE; responses

摘要

The Mediterranean Sea is a marine biodiversity hotspot already affected by climate- driven biodiversity collapses. Its highly endemic fauna is at further risk if global warming triggers an invasion of tropical Atlantic species. Here, we combine modern species occurrences with a unique paleorecord from the Last Interglacial (135 to 116 ka), a conservative analog of future climate, to model the future distribution of an exemplary subset of tropical West African mollusks, currently separated from the Mediterranean by cold upwelling off north - west Africa. We show that, already under an intermediate climate scenario (RCP 4.5) by 2050, climatic connectivity along north - west Africa may allow tropical species to colonize a by then largely environmentally suitable Mediterranean. The worst - case scenario RCP 8.5 leads to a fully tropicalized Mediterranean by 2100. The tropical Atlantic invasion will add to the ongoing Indo- Pacific invasion through the Suez Canal, irreversibly transforming the entire Mediterranean into a novel ecosystem unprecedented in human history.