The long-term expansion and recession of human populations

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Freeman, Jacob; Robinson, Erick; Bird, Darcy; Hardh, Robert J.; Mauldin, Raymond P.; Anderies, John M.
• 署名单位: Utah System of Higher Education; Utah State University; Utah System of Higher Education; Utah State University; Nevada System of Higher Education (NSHE); Desert Research Institute NSHE; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Washington State University; State University System of Florida; University of Florida; University of Texas System; University of Texas at San Antonio; University of Texas System; University of Texas at San Antonio; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-9564
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2312207121
• 发表日期: 2024-03-11
• 关键词: digital index; archaeology; DYNAMICS; GROWTH; distributions; demography; SPACE; MODEL; diet

摘要

Over the last 12,000 y, human populations have expanded and transformed critical earth systems. Yet, a key unresolved question in the environmental and social sciences remains: Why did human populations grow and, sometimes, decline in the first place? Our research builds on 20 y of archaeological research studying the deep time dynamics of human populations to propose an explanation for the long-term growth and stability of human populations. Innovations in the productive capacity of populations fuels exponential -like growth over thousands of years; however, innovations saturate over time and, often, may leave populations vulnerable to large recessions in their well-being and population density. Empirically, we find a trade-off between changes in land use that increase the production and consumption of carbohydrates, driving repeated waves of population growth over thousands of years, and the susceptibility of populations to large recessions due to a lag in the impact of humans on resources. These results shed light on the long-term drivers of human population growth and decline.