Coordination dynamics between fuel cell and battery technologies in the transition to clean cars

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Dugoua, Eugenie; Dumas, Marion
• 署名单位: University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-9096
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2318605121
• 发表日期: 2024-07-02
• 关键词: innovation; integration; policies; LESSONS; MODEL; ART

摘要

Significant progress reconciling economic activities with a stable climate requires radical and rapid technological change in multiple sectors. Here, we study the case of the automotive industry's transition to electric vehicles, which involved choosing between two different technologies: fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) or battery electric vehicles (BEVs). We know very little about the role that such technological uncertainty plays in shaping the strategies of firms, the efficacy of technological and climate policies, and the speed of technological transitions. Here, we explain that the choice between these two technologies posed a global and multisectoral coordination game, due to technological complementarities and the global organization of the industry's markets and supply chains. We use data on patents, supply -chain relationships, and national policies to document historical trends and industry dynamics for these two technologies. While the industry initially focused on FCEVs, around 2008, the technological paradigm shifted to BEVs. National -level policies had a limited ability to coordinate global players around a type of clean car technology. Instead, exogenous innovation spillovers from outside the automotive sector played a critical role in solving this coordination game in favor of BEVs. Our results suggest that global and cross-sectoral technology policies may be needed to accelerate low -carbon technological change in other sectors, such as shipping or aviation. This enriches the existing theoretical paradigm, which ignores the scale of interdependencies between technologies and firms.