Monologues, dialogues, and common priors

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Di Tillio, A.; Lehrer, E.; Samet, D.
• 署名单位: Bocconi University; Bocconi University; Tel Aviv University; Tel Aviv University
• 刊物名称: THEORETICAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1933-6837
• DOI: 10.3982/TE4508
• 发表日期: 2022-05-01
• 页码: 587-615
• 关键词: Learning processes; Bayesian dialogue; Bayesian monologue; ratio variation; joint fluctuation; agreement; D83

摘要

The main purpose of this paper is to provide a simple criterion enabling to conclude that two agents do not share a common prior. The criterion is simple, as it does not require information about the agents' knowledge and beliefs, but rather only the record of a dialogue between the agents. In each stage of the dialogue, the agents tell each other the probability they ascribe to a fixed event and update their beliefs about the event. To characterize dialogues consistent with a common prior, we first study monologues, which are sequences of probabilities assigned by a single agent to a given event in an exogenous learning process. A dialogue is consistent with a common prior if and only if each selection sequence from the two monologues comprising the dialogue is itself a monologue.