Innovation adoption by forward-looking social learners

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Frick, Mira; Ishii, Yuhta
• 署名单位: Princeton University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
• 刊物名称: THEORETICAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1933-6837
• DOI: 10.3982/TE4455
• 发表日期: 2024-11-01
• 页码: 1505-1541
• 关键词: Innovation adoption; social learning; informational free-riding; strategic experimentation; exponential bandits; D80; D83; O33

摘要

We build a model studying the effect of an economy's potential for social learning on the adoption of innovations of uncertain quality. Assuming consumers are forward-looking (i.e., recognize the value of waiting for information), we analyze how qualitative and quantitative features of the learning environment affect equilibrium adoption dynamics, welfare, and the speed of learning. Based on this, we show how differences in the learning environment translate into observable differences in adoption dynamics, suggesting a purely informational channel for two commonly documented adoption patterns: S-shaped and concave curves. We also identify environments that are subject to a saturation effect: Increased opportunities for social learning can slow down adoption and learning, and do not increase consumer welfare, possibly even being harmful.