Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Pereira, Henrique M.; Martins, Ines S.; Rosa, Isabel M. D.; Kim, Hyejin; Leadley, Paul; Popp, Alexander; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Hurtt, George; Quoss, Luise; Arneth, Almut; Baisero, Daniele; Bakkenes, Michel; Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Chini, Louise; Di Marco, Moreno; Ferrier, Simon; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Guerra, Carlos A.; Harfoot, Michael; Harwood, Thomas D.; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Haverd, Vanessa; Havlik, Petr; Hellweg, Stefanie; Hilbers, Jelle P.; Hill, Samantha L. L.; Hirata, Akiko; Hoskins, Andrew J.; Humpenoeder, Florian; Janse, Jan H.; Jetz, Walter; Johnson, Justin A.; Krause, Andreas; Leclere, David; Matsui, Tetsuya; Meijer, Johan R.; Merow, Cory; Obersteiner, Michael; Ohashi, Haruka; De Palma, Adriana; Poulter, Benjamin; Purvis, Andy; Quesada, Benjamin; Rondinini, Carlo; Schipper, Aafke M.; Settele, Josef; Sharp, Richard; Stehfest, Elke; Strassburg, Bernardo B. N.; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Talluto, Matthew V.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Titeux, Nicolas; Visconti, Piero; Ware, Christopher; Wolf, Florian; Alkemade, Rob
• 署名单位: German Research Foundation (DFG); German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv); Martin Luther University Halle Wittenberg; Universidade do Porto; University of York - UK; UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH); Universite Paris Saclay; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); AgroParisTech; Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; Universitat Kassel; Utrecht University; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; Helmholtz Association; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology; Sapienza University Rome; BirdLife International; World Wildlife Fund; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO); CSIRO Environment; Kyoto University; National Institute for Environmental Studies - Japan; Universidade de Coimbra; University of Oxford; Ritsumeikan University; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Radboud University Nijmegen; Natural History Museum London; Forestry & Forest Products Research Institute - Japan; University of Tsukuba; James Cook University; Yale University; Yale University; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Technical University of Munich; University of Connecticut; National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA); NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Imperial College London; Universidad del Rosario; Helmholtz Association; Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research (UFZ); University of the Philippines System; University of the Philippines Los Banos; University of Innsbruck; Universite Gustave-Eiffel; Communaute Universite Grenoble Alpes; Universite Grenoble Alpes (UGA); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universite Savoie Mont Blanc; Luxembourg Institute of Science & Technology; Zoological Society of London; University of London; University College London; Wageningen University & Research
• 刊物名称: SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0036-12039
• DOI: 10.1126/science.adn3441
• 发表日期: 2024-04-26
• 页码: 458-465
• 关键词: extinction risk; FUTURE

摘要

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.