Anthropogenic amplification of precipitation variability over the past century

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Zhang, Wenxia; Zhou, Tianjun; Wu, Peili
• 署名单位: Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS; Met Office - UK; Hadley Centre
• 刊物名称: SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0036-9582
• DOI: 10.1126/science.adp0212
• 发表日期: 2024-07-26
• 页码: 427-432
• 关键词: hydrological cycle; part i; climate; network; dataset; circulation; increases

摘要

As the climate warms, the consequent moistening of the atmosphere increases extreme precipitation. Precipitation variability should also increase, producing larger wet-dry swings, but that is yet to be confirmed observationally. Here we show that precipitation variability has already grown globally (over 75% of land area) over the past century, as a result of accumulated anthropogenic warming. The increased variability is seen across daily to intraseasonal timescales, with daily variability increased by 1.2% per 10 years globally, and is particularly prominent over Europe, Australia, and eastern North America. Increased precipitation variability is driven mainly by thermodynamics linked to atmospheric moistening, modulated at decadal timescales by circulation changes. Amplified precipitation variability poses new challenges for weather and climate predictions, as well as for resilience and adaptation by societies and ecosystems.