A 485-million-year history of Earth's surface temperature

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Judd, Emily J.; Tierney, Jessica E.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Montanez, Isabel P.; Huber, Brian T.; Wing, Scott L.; Valdes, Paul J.
• 署名单位: Smithsonian Institution; Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History; University of Arizona; University of Bristol; University of California System; University of California Davis; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, CAS
• 刊物名称: SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0036-8735
• DOI: 10.1126/science.adk3705
• 发表日期: 2024-09-20
• 关键词: seawater carbonate concentration; oxygen isotopic composition; eocene thermal maximum; climatic optimum eeco; sensitivity; calibration; record; MODEL; proxy; delta-o-18

摘要

A long-term record of global mean surface temperature (GMST) provides critical insight into the dynamical limits of Earth's climate and the complex feedbacks between temperature and the broader Earth system. Here, we present PhanDA, a reconstruction of GMST over the past 485 million years, generated by statistically integrating proxy data with climate model simulations. PhanDA exhibits a large range of GMST, spanning 11 degrees to 36 degrees C. Partitioning the reconstruction into climate states indicates that more time was spent in warmer rather than colder climates and reveals consistent latitudinal temperature gradients within each state. There is a strong correlation between atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and GMST, identifying CO2 as the dominant control on variations in Phanerozoic global climate and suggesting an apparent Earth system sensitivity of similar to 8 degrees C.