Antarctica in 2025: Drivers of deep uncertainty in projected ice loss

• 成果类型: Review
• 署名作者: Fricker, Helen Amanda; Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K.; Walker, Catherine Colello; Freer, Bryony Isabella Diana; Padman, Laurie; Deconto, Robert
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California San Diego; Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Australian Antarctic Division; University of Tasmania; University of Tasmania; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; University of Massachusetts System; University of Massachusetts Amherst
• 刊物名称: SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0036-8906
• DOI: 10.1126/science.adt9619
• 发表日期: 2025-02-07
• 页码: 601-609
• 关键词: grounding line retreat; shelf rift propagation; amundsen sea embayment; pine island bay; thwaites glacier; east antarctica; west antarctica; brief communication; cliff instability; subglacial flood

摘要

Antarctica is a vital component of Earth's climate system, influencing global sea level, ocean circulation, and planetary albedo. Major knowledge gaps in critical processes-spanning the atmosphere, ocean, ice sheets, underlying beds, ice shelves, and sea ice-create uncertainties in future projections, hindering climate adaptation and risk assessments of ice intervention strategies. Antarctica's ice sheet could contribute 28 centimeters to sea level by 2100, and potentially more if we surpass warming thresholds that trigger instabilities and rapid retreat. We review recent advances in understanding the changing stability of the ice sheet margins and identify key processes that require further research. Progress requires high-resolution satellite data, targeted field campaigns, improved modeling, and refined theory. Increased investment and interdisciplinary collaboration are essential to uncovering Antarctica's hidden processes and reducing uncertainties in future projections.