Tropical forests in the Americas are changing too slowly to track climate change

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Aguirre-Gutierrez, Jesus; Diaz, Sandra; Rifai, Sami W.; Corral-Rivas, Jose Javier; Nava-Miranda, Maria Guadalupe; Gonzalez-M, Roy; Hurtado-M, Ana Belen; Revilla, Norma Salinas; Vilanova, Emilio; Almeida, Everton; de Oliveira, Edmar Almeida; Alvarez-Davila, Esteban; Alves, Luciana F.; de Andrade, Ana Cristina Segalin; Lola da Costa, Antonio Carlos; Vieira, Simone Aparecida; Aragao, Luiz; Arets, Eric; Aymard C, Gerardo A.; Baccaro, Fabricio; Bakker, Yvonne Vanessa; Baker, Timothy R.; Banki, Olaf; Baraloto, Christopher; de Camargo, Plinio Barbosa; Berenguer, Erika; Blanc, Lilian; Bonal, Damien; Bongers, Frans; Bordin, Kauane Maiara; Brienen, Roel; Brown, Foster; Prestes, Nayane Cristina C. S.; Castilho, Carolina V.; Ribeiro, Sabina Cerruto; de Souza, Fernanda Coelho; Comiskey, James A.; Valverde, Fernando Cornejo; Mueller, Sandra Cristina; da Costa Silva, Richarlly; do Vale, Julio Daniel; Kamimura, Vitor de Andrade; Perdiz, Ricardo de Oliveira; Pasquel, Jhon del Aguila; Derroire, Geraldine; Di Fiore, Anthony; Disney, Mathias; Farfan-Rios, William; Fauset, Sophie; Feldpausch, Ted R.; Ramos, Rafael Flora; Llampazo, Gerardo Flores; Martins, Valeria Forni; Fortunel, Claire; Cabrera, Karina Garcia; Barroso, Jorcely Goncalves; Herault, Bruno; Herrera, Rafael; Honorio Coronado, Euridice N.; Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau; Pipoly, John J.; Zanini, Katia Janaina; Jimenez, Eliana; Joly, Carlos A.; Kalamandeen, Michelle; Klipel, Joice; Levesley, Aurora; Oviedo, Wilmar Lopez; Magnusson, William E.; dos Santos, Rubens Manoel; Marimon, Beatriz Schwantes; Marimon-Junior, Ben Hur; de Almeida Reis, Simone Matias; Melo Cruz, Omar Aurelio; Mendoza, Abel Monteagudo; Morandi, Paulo; Muscarella, Robert; Nascimento, Henrique; Neill, David A.; Menor, Imma Oliveras; Palacios, Walter A.; Palacios-Ramos, Sonia; Pallqui Camacho, Nadir Carolina; Pardo, Guido; Pennington, R. Toby; Pereira, Luciana de Oliveira; Pickavance, Georgia; Picolotto, Rayana Caroline; Pitman, Nigel C. A.; Prieto, Adriana; Quesada, Carlos; Ramirez-Angulo, Hirma; Rejou-Mechain, Maxime; Correa, Zorayda Restrepo; Reyna Huaymacari, Jose Manuel; Rodriguez, Carlos Reynel; Rivas-Torres, Gonzalo; Roopsind, Anand; Rudas, Agustin; Salgado Negret, Beatriz; van der Sande, Masha T.; Santana, Flavia Delgado; Maes Santos, Flavio Antonio; Bergamin, Rodrigo Scarton; Silman, Miles R.; Silva, Camila; Espejo, Javier Silva; Silveira, Marcos; Souza, Fernanda Cristina; Sullivan, Martin J. P.; Swamy, Varun; Talbot, Joey; Terborgh, John J.; van der Meer, Peter J.; van der Heijden, Geertje; van Ulft, Bert; Martinez, Rodolfo Vasquez; Vedovato, Laura; Vleminckx, Jason; Vos, Vincent Antoine; Wortel, Verginia; Zuidema, Pieter A.; Zwerts, Joeri A.; Laurance, Susan G. W.; Laurance, William F.; Chave, Jerome; Dalling, James W.; Barlow, Jos; Poorter, Lourens; Enquist, Brian J.; ter Steege, Hans; Phillips, Oliver L.; Galbraith, David; Malhi, Yadvinder
• 署名单位: University of Oxford; Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas (CONICET); National University of Cordoba; University of Adelaide; Universidad Juarez del Estado de Durango; Universidade de Santiago de Compostela; Universidad Juarez del Estado de Durango; Alliance; International Center for Tropical Agriculture - CIAT; Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru; Wildlife Conservation Society; Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Institute Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia; Universidade Federal do Para; Universidade Estadual de Campinas; Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE); University of Exeter; Wageningen University & Research; Universidade Federal de Amazonas; Universidade de Sao Paulo; Universidade Estadual de Campinas; University of Leeds; Naturalis Biodiversity Center; State University System of Florida; Florida International University; Universidade de Sao Paulo; Lancaster University; CIRAD; CIRAD; Universite de Montpellier; INRAE; AgroParisTech; Universite de Lorraine; Wageningen University & Research; Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria (EMBRAPA); EMBRAPA Roraima; Universidade Federal do Acre (UFAC); United States Department of the Interior; US National Park Service; Smithsonian Institution; Instituto Federal do Acre (IFAC); Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Parana; Instituto Tecnologico Vale Desenvolvimento Sustentavel; Institute Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia; Universidad Nacional de la Amazonia Peruana; AgroParisTech; CIRAD; INRAE; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Universidad San Francisco de Quito; University of London; University College London; Wake Forest University; Wake Forest University; Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco; University of Plymouth; University of Exeter; Universidade Estadual de Campinas; Universidade de Sao Paulo; Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos; CIRAD; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); INRAE; Universite de Montpellier; Wake Forest University; Wake Forest University; Universite de Montpellier; CIRAD; Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew; Universidad Nacional Amazonica De Madre De Dios; State University System of Florida; Florida Atlantic University; Universidad Nacional de Colombia; Universidad Nacional de Colombia; Institute Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia; Universidade Federal de Lavras; Universidad del Tolima; Uppsala University; Institute Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia; Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina; Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco; University of Exeter; Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew; Field Museum of Natural History (Chicago); Universidad Nacional de Colombia; Institute Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia; University of Los Andes Venezuela; Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); CIRAD; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universite de Montpellier; INRAE; Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina; Conservation International; Universidad Nacional de Colombia; Institute Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia; University of Birmingham; Universidad de La Serena; Universidade Federal de Lavras; Manchester Metropolitan University; Wake Forest University; University of Leeds; State University System of Florida; University of Florida; University of Nottingham; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute; Universite Libre de Bruxelles; Utrecht University; James Cook University; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); Universite Federale Toulouse Midi-Pyrenees (ComUE); Universite de Toulouse; Institut National Polytechnique de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; Smithsonian Institution; Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute; University of Arizona; The Santa Fe Institute; Naturalis Biodiversity Center; Utrecht University; State University System of Florida; University of Florida; Universidad del Tolima; University of Oxford; Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; Leuphana University Luneburg; Universidade Federal do Para
• 刊物名称: SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0036-12805
• DOI: 10.1126/science.adl5414
• 发表日期: 2025-03-07
• 页码: 1057-+
• 关键词: functional composition; phenotypic plasticity; leaf economics; dry forests; trait; communities; ecosystems

摘要

Understanding the capacity of forests to adapt to climate change is of pivotal importance for conservation science, yet this is still widely unknown. This knowledge gap is particularly acute in high-biodiversity tropical forests. Here, we examined how tropical forests of the Americas have shifted community trait composition in recent decades as a response to changes in climate. Based on historical trait-climate relationships, we found that, overall, the studied functional traits show shifts of less than 8% of what would be expected given the observed changes in climate. However, the recruit assemblage shows shifts of 21% relative to climate change expectation. The most diverse forests on Earth are changing in functional trait composition but at a rate that is fundamentally insufficient to track climate change.