Abrupt sea level rise and Earth's gradual pole shift reveal permanent hydrological regime changes in the 21st century

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Seo, Ki-Weon; Ryu, Dongryeol; Jeon, Taehwan; Youm, Kookhyoun; Kim, Jae-Seung; Oh, Earthu H.; Chen, Jianli; Famiglietti, James S.; Wilson, Clark R.
• 署名单位: Seoul National University (SNU); University of Melbourne; Seoul National University (SNU); Hong Kong Polytechnic University; Hong Kong Polytechnic University; Hong Kong Polytechnic University; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
• 刊物名称: SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0036-13191
• DOI: 10.1126/science.adq6529
• 发表日期: 2025-03-28
• 关键词: climate-change; soil-moisture; drought; evapotranspiration; rainfall; TRENDS

摘要

Rising atmospheric and ocean temperatures have caused substantial changes in terrestrial water circulation and land surface water fluxes, such as precipitation and evapotranspiration, potentially leading to abrupt shifts in terrestrial water storage. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) soil moisture (SM) product reveals a sharp depletion during the early 21st century. During the period 2000 to 2002, soil moisture declined by approximately 1614 gigatonnes, much larger than Greenland's ice loss of about 900 gigatonnes (2002-2006). From 2003 to 2016, SM depletion continued, with an additional 1009-gigatonne loss. This depletion is supported by two independent observations of global mean sea level rise (similar to 4.4 millimeters) and Earth's pole shift (similar to 45 centimeters). Precipitation deficits and stable evapotranspiration likely caused this decline, and SM has not recovered as of 2021, with future recovery unlikely under present climate conditions.